"Single moms are a sacred thing - a real man wouldn't shop-lift the pooty". So said Cuba Gooding Jnr to Tom Cruise in the 1996 film Jerry Maguire and it is perhaps a fitting riposte to Governor Schwartznegger's amusing "economic girlie-man" references made during his Republican Convention speech.

What the US economy needs (at least, one of the things it needs) is some fiscal restraint on the part of the federal budget. Unfortunately, what the electorate is getting are promises of tax-cuts from both candidates. The pooty is in danger of begin shop-lifted.

Of course, there are major differences between campaigning and governing. Were Kerry to win, he might try to clean up the twin deficit mess since it was not of his making. But who ever heard of a candidate winning an election on that platform? With a Bush victory it is likely to be more of the same, and the President said as much at the Republican Convention.

Since the previous Capital Chronicle (CC) update IGsport have seen their spreads move in favour of a Bush victory. The president is now at 275-283 in terms of Electoral College votes (259-267 last time with 270 required for victory); and the republicans are 60-64 to win the White House (50-54 last time with winning bets settled at 100).

This represents an alignment of the gambling money with the political fundamentals, as applied by the CC model.

Is there still value in the 60-64 spread line, this blog's previous recommendation? Yes, and perhaps a great deal if you believe that the Pentagon's announced intention last week to investigate Kerry's war record can only be very bad news for the democrats. Were it to emerge, or be successfully spun, that Kerry has embellished his service record the spreads will likely skew to Bush dramatically. For the democrats, it is tough to see where they can find a knock-out blow.

There are other interesting spreads for both republican and democrat bettors. The mid-west battleground carries four particularly interesting lines entitled "Kerry to win":

  1. Ohio 33-38
  2. Michigan 64-69
  3. Pennsylvania 55-60
  4. West Virginia 35-40
Ohio and West Virginia represent fair bets for Kerry fans. The former has lost jobs over the last year; and the latter is not natural republican territory nor has it seen any significant job growth in its dominant manufacturing-based economy. Polls indicate both are swing states. However, if Kerry continues to mismanage the war-record debate there is not a lot of point putting money here.

For Bush, Pennsylvania is clearly a great bet. Over 36,000 jobs added since 2003 and the prospect of his challenger fading badly. Michigan is riskier with poor job growth on a manufacturing economic base in a state carried with a 5% margin by Al Gore in 2000.

Bookmark and Share

2 comments

  1. Anonymous // 9/18/2004 05:26:00 AM

    What's with all this analysis.On the subject of the US Election - Bush is gonna win. I been following the campaigns, and even though I thought Kerry did quite well at the Democratic Convention he needs to deliver KO punch. I don't think Kerry is capable of doing so , and the Republican attack dogs are doing a good job of pissing on his Vietnam record. Unless the economy really tanks or there is big disaster in Iraq ( no one really seems to care about the prison scandal or lack of weapons of mass destruction) it's "4 more years" for Bush.
    I get the feeling that even if Bush says something really stupid in the Pres Debates it will get overlooked. Enough people still like him despite the stupid things he has already said and done.

  2. RJH // 9/18/2004 05:20:00 PM

    I believe you are right. Still, analysis may help profitable speculation at the state level.

Related Posts with Thumbnails