National City Corporation (NCC), a regional US bank worth keeping an investment eye on, has come up with this model (follow the link to "Election Prediction Model") for predicting the mid-west "battleground" states results. The standard error for some of the state results inhibits gamblers rushing out to bet Bush but the temptation is nonetheless large for the others. For example, Ohio, 20 Electoral College (EC) votes and one that when lost by the Republicans has always seen the Democrats win the White House, is shown going Bush. As is Michigan, with 17 EC votes.
The Ohio prediction is surprising given that the state has lost over 30,000 jobs over the last year to July. Democrats may be tempted on this basis to draw sustenance that NCC's model will be incorrect. There is comfort for them too in that Pennsylvania, the largest mid-west EC vote state with 21, is still shown as in the balance. However, Pennsylvania has added over 36,000 jobs since last year: its voting Kerry ought not to be assumed. In fact, given the last set of poor non-farm payroll numbers it is a shock that swing states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania are not already clearly leaning Democratic.
The 10,000 metre view is this: 270 EC votes are required to win. The Republicans appear at this writing to have 187 in the bag (ignoring all swing states mentioned in the piece); the Democrats have 179 with 172 to play for. (See the NY Times coverage page for more).
Should Bush carry two of either Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan - not outlandish if NCC are to be believed - he will have two key mid-west states and at least 37 EC votes. At this point the largest remaining swing state is Florida with 27 EC votes. Florida has added over 160,000 jobs since July 2003 to its well-diversified economy. A Bush governor and a Bush president - it is reasonable to put the 27 votes down in the republican column raising the President's tally to 251.
Do the remaining 19 EC votes required represent a mountain to climb? The five states most likely to go Bush in this situation appear to be West Virgina (5 EC votes), Missouri (11 EC votes), Colorado (9 EC votes), Arizona (10 EC votes) and Nevada (5 EC votes). All have improving job statistics and voted Bush last time - by comfortable majorities in the cases of W. Virginia, Colorado and Arizona. An incumbent president would count himself unlucky not to carry three of these five - and that, whatever the other results, would be enough to return Bush. On current trends.
But what does the gambling money reckon?
Currently IGsport.com are offering EC vote spreads on Kerry of 271-279. That is, a John Kerry presidency is predicted. Bush is quoted at 259-267. That looks a reasonable bet from this scribe's chair but not one to make you rich in a close election.
Potentially much more enriching (and a natural hedge if used with the Electoral College votes line) is the quote 50-54 for the Republicans to emerge as the party that will win the White House. That line is decided at 100 on a winner takes all basis. In other words, one risks 54 to win 100 or 1.85 to 1.