US headline economic data through July is good. So good it tests credulity. The choice for the incredulous remains being right too soon, or making money whilst the sun shines.

Still, one wonders why, of the indicators below, only the yield curve looks worrying. Flattening in itself does not herald a recession. But it does, usually, mean that money supply is becoming tighter and pessimism for growth and inflation is rising. Yet with real US rates remarkably low it is difficult to escape the conclusion that, whatever the yield curve says at the moment, the US economy is in stimulus mode - not the opposite.



Notes: "Triggers" consistent with indicator levels for previous recessions in the last 40 years; S&P500 M-6 column shows 6 month % change; ISM M-6 column shows 6 month indicator points change.

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