Given the crash of bond prices despite a curious absence of concern about inflation the scribe wonders what effect tomorrow’s CPI data will have on both equities and sovereign debt. Clearly, previous posts indicate that he leans poor number.

Perhaps readers would take a nanosecond and click a choice on the poll below sometime before 08h30 US Eastern Standard Time tomorrow.

An alternative, and more interesting if numbers are sufficient, future version of this exercise could involve a bottle of 2002 Saint Chinian (think prop-forward / tight end but note that is a partial tasting note only) to the luckiest guesser / accurate forecaster. This idea is also code for it is possible to have too much of a good thing in the cellar.

Suggestions from the interested on equitable not-for-profit methods of defraying the postal costs (c. 30€ world-wide) welcome (nominal entry fee?).

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  1. Anonymous // 6/14/2007 08:11:00 PM


    I voted, despite my lingering doubts. Can this prize be claimed at any point during the session?


  2. RJH Adams // 6/14/2007 08:37:00 PM


    What, on top of winning a meal (a definite maybe, not a concession) you intend to fleece me out of wine too on an intra-day basis?

    The wine run may never happen - loads of traffic but apparently only teetotalers. As a dry run (strangely apt phrase) this effort appears doomed.

    Yet I wonder how things would have panned out if the magic words "olive oil" had been mentioned.

    As ever,


  3. Will Rahal // 6/15/2007 02:03:00 PM

    The skittish beavior of the bond market should not be ignored.
    I came up with a YTD CPI chart that it is scary. Seems that the bond market correctly anticipated
    an acceleration of inflation.

  4. RJH Adams // 6/15/2007 02:43:00 PM

    08h30 EST

    May Core +.0149% vs f'cast +0.2%
    May All + 0.674% vs f'cast +0.6%

    DJ Industrials 13570 at 08h29 (pre-open)...and 13627 at 08h32. +57pts so far

    Close data later.

  5. RJH Adams // 6/16/2007 09:51:00 AM

    DJ30 closed at 13639.

    69 point move from 1 minute pre CPI data release.

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