With yesterday’s stunning market performances the question on many minds is further crystallised: who is the daddy of this marvel? Is it the US Fed, led by Mr Bernanke, with its apparently successful campaign against inflation in an easy credit world? Optimistically interpreted US retail data? Simple liquidity volumes?

Man and nature may abhor the vacuum of non-explanation but it is the no-daddy thesis of Immaculate Conception that offers the likeliest cause.

That is not to dismiss the significance of the all time highs out of hand: yet a few indices such as the FTSE100 and (more marginally) the DAX and the SPX are not there or not quite over the hump.

Exhibit 1: 10 year SPX tests the high ground


The congestion near these tops may well clear on, perhaps, high volume and small spreads as pro optimists absorb nervous retail sellers. That would be a strong positive. Alternatively, agnostics may be significant enough to push things sideways until the 18 July US CPI data. It being Friday the 13th consult the entrails / runes / tea leaves for further detail.

What is certain is the force (and co-ordination even) with which central banks have spoken regarding the importance of ‘anchoring inflation expectations’; and markets have listened to this palaver attentively. Still, it is worth remembering that old talk tends to work adequately only alongside credible data results.

Exhibit 2: Great Expectations, SPX offset and no longer led


Exhibit 3: Counting on Estella not following or falling for Pip's passions

Bookmark and Share

0 comments

Related Posts with Thumbnails