A brief message to the serial optimists at the Fédération Nationale de l'Immobilier (FNAIM):

  • New stock sales are down 34% year over year in Q2 (Ministry of Ecology and Sustainable Development)
  • In some regions the decline is over 50% (Aquitaine, Lorraine, Bourgogne, Limousin and the Midi-Pyrénées)
  • Despite builders pulling over 27% of their stock off the market available inventory sits at a record 110,500 units
  • New starts stand at 402,000 suggesting overhang is on the way
  • The downward sales trend concerns both investment properties and, notably, primary residences (Fédération des Promoteurs-Constructeurs de France).
  • Even Paris has seen transactions drop 20%
  • Some observers have bolted from the comfort of forecasting gentle single digit declines: Société Générale expect a 25% fall (10% in the capital) over the next 2 years.
Possibly the FNAIM's carefully chosen data samples ("quelle crise?") are painting an overly rosy picture. Which may explain the optimism of this seller, observed Monday in Paris, however prestigious his location.

As for commercial property the anecdotal evidence is not good: these (also from last weekend in Paris) all in the space of 500 metres.

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  1. Anonymous // 8/28/2008 12:59:00 PM

    Can't say I am sorry to the erosion. From where I am sitting here and now, it's zero-sum...


  2. RJH Adams // 8/28/2008 01:15:00 PM

    My main complaint is the disinformation - or maybe let's call it skewed interpretation - FNAIM propagates. When the hard core resistant of Paris starts to drop (OK, outside of St James, Neuilly) one wonders what the next FNAIM missive will come up with.

  3. RJH Adams // 8/28/2008 01:16:00 PM

    ...and many thanks for the earlier plug!


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