The a-week-is-a-long-time-in-politics cliché enjoys great play just now. On September 3 CC put up this graph:

Exhibit 1: Presidential Election betting, state-by-state on September 3:


Then came the Governor of Alaska of whom the contrast with Mr Obama could hardly be starker. The same graph now looks like this:

Exhibit 2: Presidential Election betting, state-by-state on September 12:


But the key state of Colorado has resisted the Palin Surge leaving the Republican ticket short of the Electoral College majority. Much hangs, it would seem, on how well Mrs Palin performs in her unscripted round of interviews begun, also, this week.

In the meantime the aggregate Intrade money now has Mr McCain a full 2 points ahead -which presents an interesting arbitrage window.

Exhibit 3: Intrade overall Presidential line:


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