Ever wondered why the candidates' poll numbers are close relative to those in the betting markets?

Exhibit 1: BBC poll tracker, 30 August (Ramussen, latest)



Exhibit 2: Intrade Presidential betting



The analogy of financial results versus outlook is probably helpful.

But possibly not for Mr McCain. Further Intrade detail on the state-by-state situation paints a picture as bleak as the aggregated betting:

Exhibit 3: Intrade data: state-by-state betting at 3 September


Bar monumental gaffes by the Democrats - and assuming Intrade proves as predictive as they did last time – a lot of middle-aged, blue-collar white fellas in the key mid-west / north-east states are about to paint the White House…blue.

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