On the occasion of the upcoming release of the latest Star Trek movie, some internal promotion of this site's newsletter:

"Way back in March 2008 Richard Bove, one of the oft-seen talking heads from the financial television invitee carousel and the then bank sector analyst for Punk Ziegel & Company, wrote this in a note to clients:

"The actions taken by the Federal Reserve were innovative, dramatic, and, in my view, brilliant because they went right to the problem [...] The actions being taken by the Federal Reserve are being mirrored by the Treasury, which now has finally grasped the scope of the problem. […] The last time an opportunity of this nature existed to buy bank stocks this cheap was in 1990. The next time will be in 20 years. This is a once in a generation opportunity."

One might think such a spectacularly incorrect call would sink, without a trace, an analyst's career. However, Mr. Bove appears to have flourished both in terms of his media presence and professionally. But has he? Having issued such impoverishing advice how would it be possible?

Calls like Mr. Bove's are the sorts Kadous and Mercer analyse in their forthcoming paper “Is there safety in numbers” They take the commonsensical starting point of assuming that bold plus accuracy produces more credibility for an analyst than accuracy alone...."

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