A brief counterpoint to yesterday's back-to-flint euro housing vision. The OECD composite leading indicators, despite the bad press these get in some quarters, belie the prevailing economic melancholy (a bit).
The latest numbers (paradoxically for leading indicators, from March) look like this:
Exhibit 1: OECD composite leading indicators, 2005 to 2009
French, Spaniards and Brits may guffaw. But, considered together with the OECD's business confidence data below, the overall pictured seems less gloomy:
Exhibit 2: OECD business confidence indicators, 2005 to 2009
Still, it is irrational to be sanguine when the monthly leading indicators for Germany and the United States continue to fall with increasing pace (what inflexion point?). Indeed, the US picture (SPX data through May included) looks like this:
Exhibit 3: OECD composite leading indicators for the USA
Nevertheless, equities called the turn in April and such anticipation was comforted by last week's release of slightly more timely US Conference Board leading indicator data:
Vast fiscal stimuli and free money will have its day.