Amazon is not reporting an increase in sales of Percy’s sonnets but it is looking like Shelley can add “market sage” to a cv already boasting the achievements of “renowned romantic poet” and “over enthusiastic practitioner of free love”.
In some places (one example of several) Dubai's predicament is being described as a “black swan”. This cannot be right on any reasonable reading. For example, over a year ago - September 19, 2008 - Jim Chanos appeared on Bloomberg and declared “if I could short Dubai I’d short it” (8’59”). The SEC have not tried to pin the current woes on him partly due to jurisdiction limitations but also because the menace of a
default "standstill request" has simply been out there for a long time.
No, what we have here is another episode in the Waiting for the Wheels to Fall Off game. Unsurprisingly, investors appear to have been encouraged in this by dissembling Emirates authorities with a separate agenda.
This piece outlines that point and some of the reaction retrospection permits. But, when intelligent people with Other People’s Money allow their hopes to obscure reality, quotes from that article such as “The credibility of these guys has been found wanting” tend to cut both ways. It is the price of optimism and faith in today's “anti-market at any cost” dogma of financial crisis management.
The growth of Dubai City has long seemed unsustainably anti-financial, unsustainably anti-nature (UAE ranking, page 14 - I know everyone like to beat the US but this is ridiculous) and anti-“guest worker”.
Revisiting the model is surely no bad thing.