Just in time to cheer equity bulls for the weekend, the IMF today published one of their "Position Notes" entitled U.S. Consumption after the 2008 Crisis. Its conclusion:

We expect the U.S. consumption to remain at a relatively subdued level over the next several years, with the household saving rate settling at 5–7 percent of disposable personal income, somewhat above the 2009 saving rate of nearly 5 percent. Though the estimate is subject to a sizable statistical uncertainty, it is supported by several alternative estimates and simulation analysis. Compared to the pre-crisis years (2003–07), the estimated changes in saving and consumption imply a decrease in the U.S. private-sector demand of 2–3¾ percentage points of GDP—close to a half of the U.S. current account deficit at its peak. This will have substantial effects on global economic development after the current crisis. [Guess whose emphasis]

Nice long-term graphs, though, for some superb context:



Have a good one and do something precious for Haiti's future with Save the Children.

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