After living many unusual professional and personal weeks since the last entry here, getting back into the swing of bloggy things begins with some forecasts. Will there be a double dip recession? Is this the end of the euro? Which is the greater threat, deflation or inflation? When is the first of a domino-like series of sovereign defaults coming?


Frankly, come June 11, who cares?

In a week where "Woody" of Cheers fame can score the winning penalty for the Rest of the World versus England at Wembley, this attitude, in Bill Gross speak, is "the new normal". At least for the duration of the World Cup.

While other forecasters might feel as comfortable as Tony Hayward at a Friends of the Earth rally when issuing their calls readers can draw comfort from the solidity of the following, financially related tournament forecast: it will be good news for the PIIGS (that qualified without recourse to an EU bailout) until Spain (who beat Portugal in the last 16) fall to Italy in the quarter finals. Germany then explain the concept of a "strong euro" (with concrete examples) to Italy in the semis.

And, if there is a regret in all this, it is that the two Koreas will not meet.

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2 comments

  1. Charles Butler // 6/09/2010 11:04:00 PM

    At least your absence didn't rob you of a proper sense of priorities. Italy-Spain unfortunately all to probable. Even the most beautiful team to play the game won't be able to beat eight men back.

  2. Anonymous // 6/10/2010 08:58:00 AM

    Hey Charles!

    Well, I hope the most "beautiful" football prevails. The Italy call belies the aged legs of Cannavaro at the back or Gattuso in midfield. And the team has looked bad in the last 2 friendlies. But, you know, it is Italy and Lippi. Perennial tourney team.

    -RJH

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