Lion, thanks for the comment. I don't think 9/11...

2004-07-28T17:14:00.000+02:00

Lion, thanks for the comment.

I don't think 9/11 is a political-landscape changing factor; but I agree that most Americans beleive getting Saddam out was Good. The most interesting part of your comment is about Kerry and the accompanying boxing analogy. He has to use his Thursday convention speech to Show Me The Money. So far it's all been about Bush weakness. Kerry has to do Something to get beyond the close poll margin he enjoys now. Can he do it? I tend to doubt it.

I believe that current forecasting models still work well. If so, the latest jobs data in the 17 key battleground states will help Bush immeasurably, whatever Kerry says. Only Michigan, W Virginia and Ohio show declines in job growth and they are manufacturing states out of kilter with service sector growth.

I think the biggest question for President Bush’s ...

2004-07-17T07:19:00.000+02:00

I think the biggest question for President Bush’s chances in November 2004 is this, "Does the 9/11 shock present a new equilibrium in the political economy?" If the answer is yes, 9/11 changed everything, President Bush will be re-elected in spite of arguably over-reaching his hand with the invasion of Iraq or having at best a mixed record on the economy at home. If 9/11 proves to be a temporary shock that does not result in a permanent change in the political and economic trend of the past fifty years, his re-election will be more uncertain.

In the prism of 9/11, I believe more Americans respond favorably to the question: Is the world better off with Saddam Hussein gone from power? In other words, the President will walk away with more if we split the difference on the question of whether or not there was a rush to war in Iraq. This would be true, even after you add the dilemma of a moderately unstable – say current trends continue – post-invasion Iraq up to election eve.

On the economy, too, that question looms large. The price of security, I daresay most Americans will conclude, is even higher post-9/11. Thus, in spite of large deficits, modest gains in employment during the President’s term, and mixed results overall for the President's economic policies, he can successfully make the case to voters that his priority was changed to one of protecting the nation by the events of 9/11. Just like Iraq, if we had to split the difference, I believe the President will again walk away with more.

This, of course, begs the question, "What does it have to do with the challenger, Senator John Kerry?" Or perhaps phrased differently, “What does Senator Kerry have to do to wrest the reigns?” Well, everything. He has to offer a significantly better vision or plan to eclipse President Bush’s post-9/11 stature with voters and persuade them between now and November 2, 2004 to change the quarterback. If 9/11 changed the political calculus, then voters will need a lot of evidence to part with the bird in hand.

Perhaps a better sports analogy is that of a boxing challenger against a champion: It is often the case that the challenger must knock out the champion outright to win. It is possible, of course, that Senator Kerry has time yet to deliver the knock out punch or have it delivered for him by extraordinary events in Iraq or the economy. Better still for Senator Kerry if voters have really not focused on the elections as yet and that when they do, they look beyond 9/11. But I think it is safe to call the champion ahead on the cards at the moment.

There is another important question about the impact of 9/11: What effect will it have on all the punditry and political forecasting models that no doubt are based on trends and events of the last fifty years? Once again, if we are in a new equilibrium in the political economy, we would have to revise our forecasting models; but there is an inherent irony in the fact that we can really only revise our models after we observe the effect 9/11 may have had after November 2, 2004.

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Lion, thanks for the comment. I don't think 9/11...

I think the biggest question for President Bush’s ...